Experts say that only through lockdowns and strict restrictions can the R value be controlled
Masks in crowded areas, rules of social distance should be strictly followed
The Union Home Ministry had two days ago alerted all the states about the rising 'R' factor of Kovid-19. In a letter to the states, Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla said, "You must be aware that an R factor greater than 1.0 is a sign of a growing case of Covid-19. Other Covid-19 preventive measures should be strictly followed.
But what is the 'R' factor that the government is so worried about? Why is the risk of lockdown increasing due to its increase? What is the R factor at this time and how does it indicate an increase in the case?
How does case increase by R value?
According to data scientists, R factor means reproduction rate. It states how many people are or could be infected by one infected person. If R factor is greater than 1.0 it means that the cases are increasing, while if it is less than R factor 1.0 or decreasing it is a sign of decreasing case.
It is also understood that if 100 people are infected. If it transitions 100 people, the R value will be 1, but if it transitions 80 people, then this R value will be 0.80.
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What is the current status of R value in India?
According to a study by the Institute of Mathematical Sciences (IMSc) in Chennai, the current R factor in the country is less than 1.0 but it is increasing rapidly in some states. Across India, the R factor was 0.78 in mid-May, meaning 100 people were transitioning to just 78 people, but in late June and the first week of July, the R value was 0.88, meaning 100 people were transitioning to 88 people.
According to a study by IMSc, the current R factor in the country is less than 1.0 but it is increasing rapidly in some states.
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According to the study, the R value between March 9 and April 21 was 1.37. For this reason, cases were growing rapidly during this time and another wave was advancing towards its peak. The R value was 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then came down to 1.10 between April 29 and May 7. Since then the R value has been steadily declining. As a result, cases also declined.
In which states R value is increasing alarmingly?
Sitabhra Sinha, who is leading the team of researchers, claims that the R value in India is less than 1, but the pace of decline in the number of active cases has slowed down. This is because some states in the Northeast and Kerala have increased R values.
The lower the R value, the faster the number of new cases decreases, says Sinha. Similarly if the R value is greater than 1.0, then the number of infected people will increase in each round. Technically it is called the epidemic phase.
What is the distance from the R value in the active case?
The R value has declined since May 9, they say. Between May 15 and June 26, it dropped to 0.78, but after June 20, it rose to 0.88. Cases will not grow very fast until the R value exceeds 1.0, but the increase in this value is worrisome.
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He gave an example that if R value is maintained at 0.78 per cent, the active case will be less than 1.5 lakh by July 27, but now the R value has increased to 0.88 and if there is no change, the active case will be around 3 lakh on July 27. Will remain, i.e. a distance of 0.1 in the R value can double the number of active cases in two weeks.
In which states R value has increased?
The number of active cases in Maharashtra fell to 1.07 lakh on July 16, but the worrying thing is that the state's R value was 0.84 on May 30, which rose to 0.89 at the end of June. In Maharashtra, meanwhile, cases have risen sharply.
In Kerala, there are 1.19 lakh active cases. The R value here reached 1.10 earlier this month. This is the reason why new cases of transition have progressed faster than the number of cases being recovered. Speaking of Maharashtra and Kerala, these two states currently have more than 50% active cases in the country.
According to the study, the R value in Manipur is 1.07, while in Meghalaya it is 0.92, in Tripura 1.15, in Mizoram 0.86, in Arunachal Pradesh 1.14, in Sikkim 0.88 and in Assam 0.86.
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Can increasing R value bring lockdown?
Yes. Certainly. If the R value continues to rise and reaches above 1.0, the lockdown may be re-imposed. This is a formula that the Central and State Governments are following. His focus at the moment is on the positivity rate.
Experts say the R value can only be controlled through lockdowns and strict restrictions. If people do not come out, the infected person will not be able to infect others. The main reason for the low R value in May was the lockdown. Then another wave began to subside.
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